Provenance

You already know how you should invest.

Provenance is an investment discipline system for the serious self-directed investor — a framework that brings order and rigour to your portfolio, enforces consistency between what you believe and what you actually do, and accumulates context across every decision you make.

From a recent session

CNQ has returned 65% and now sits at 8% of the portfolio. The thesis is intact. The investor asks when portfolio construction discipline should override conviction.

Investor

CNQ has returned 65% since purchase and now represents 8% of my total portfolio — my largest single-stock position. The thesis is intact: best-in-class oil sands operator, growing dividend, disciplined capital allocation. But I didn't buy it to have 8% of my net worth in a single Canadian energy name. At what point does portfolio construction discipline override thesis conviction?

Soren

The question is framed backwards. Portfolio construction IS a thesis — a thesis about concentration risk and the limits of your own forecasting ability. The real question: if you were sitting on cash today, would you put 8% of your portfolio into CNQ at current prices? If no, trim. The fact that it got here through appreciation rather than intention is emotionally relevant but analytically irrelevant.

Mae

I'd separate two questions: should you trim, and how much. Should you trim is almost certainly yes — not because the thesis is wrong, but because 8% in a single commodity name is a concentration most disciplined investors wouldn't choose deliberately. The “how much” question is where the real work is. What's the right target weight, and what path gets you there?

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